Economic Forecast for Las Vegas Real Estate Market

Wasim Faranesh Image
Wasim Faranesh

Owner of Faranesh Real Estate and Property Management

Economic Forecast for Las Vegas Real Estate Market

Are you thinking about investing in Las Vegas real estate? Hold off on making any decisions just yet. While Las Vegas is famous for its vibrant entertainment and bright lights, it’s also a prime spot for real estate investment. But, like with any investment, it’s crucial to understand the economic landscape.

In this blog, we’ll take a deep dive into the economic forecast for the Las Vegas real estate market, examining the trends, obstacles, and opportunities that lie ahead. Whether you’re an experienced investor or interested in the market’s potential, this forecast will give you valuable insights.

Las Vegas Economic Indicators Impacting Real Estate

Understanding the economic indicators shaping the Las Vegas housing market is crucial for making informed real estate decisions. The city’s population growth is one such pivotal factor.

Over the past decade, Las Vegas’s population has surged nearly 20% to approximately 2.3 million people. This impressive growth, which places Las Vegas among the top 10 most popular migration destinations, largely fuels the city’s housing demand.

Another significant economic factor influencing the real estate market is the evolution of Las Vegas’ strong job market. The city saw a rapid employment rate growth of 5.7% in recent years, nearly doubling the national average growth rate. With sectors such as construction and manufacturing experiencing faster job growth, the steady expansion of employment opportunities supports the sustained demand for housing.

Population Dynamics and Housing Demand

Population dynamics significantly sway housing demand in Las Vegas. The city’s population growth rate, which is above the national average, has led to consistent demand for housing and positively influenced real estate prices. This growth is primarily driven by Californians relocating to Las Vegas, a trend that has persisted despite a slowdown in home sales.

The factors driving this consistent growth include economic opportunities, an affordable cost of living, and a desirable lifestyle. Over the past decade, the Las Vegas metro area has been ranked the 97th fastest-growing, demonstrating strong population growth, a key driver for increasing housing demand and real estate investment.

Tourism and Hospitality Influence

las vegas tourism influence

The real estate market in Las Vegas is also greatly influenced by its cosmopolitan allure and status as a popular tourist destination. The city attracts many visitors yearly, increasing the demand for housing as frequent visitors often consider purchasing property. The robust hospitality sector enhances real estate values due to the heightened demand for accommodations and the income potential offered by tourist rentals.

Las Vegas’s global reputation as a tourist hub ensures a consistent flow of opportunities for short-term and vacation rentals, presenting lucrative options for long-term investors in the real estate market. This influence of tourism and hospitality on the real estate market underscores the interconnectedness of the city’s diverse economic sectors and their collective impact on shaping the Las Vegas real estate landscape.

With the help of skilled Las Vegas realtors, investors can navigate the complexities of the Vegas real estate market and find the perfect property to suit their needs.

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Health

real estate market health las vegas

Las Vegas’s real estate market, a significant part of the Nevada real estate market, is witnessing a cool-down phase with the following trends:

  • Home sales are decelerating.
  • Inventory levels are fluctuating.
  • The market remains stable due to sustained housing demand from new residents moving into the area.
  • Despite the sales slowdown, the tightening of inventory levels contributes to the resilience of home values.
  • Experts anticipate that the low inventory could sustain high home values in Las Vegas, countering the sales challenges.

This cooling trend is evident in the median home sales price in December 2023, which showed a 5.9% year-over-year increase, suggesting a slowdown in price acceleration. Additionally, homes are staying on the market for longer, with median days reaching 46 days in May 2023, indicating a slower sales pace. Despite these changes, the real estate market in Vegas remains a vibrant and dynamic landscape for buyers and sellers.

Home Sales and Inventory Levels

Las Vegas has recently experienced significant changes in home sales and inventory levels. Notably, there was a decrease in the total number of homes sold, with specific tallies such as 1,518 single-family homes sold in a two-year period and a recent year and sold around 1,479. This decrease in home sales is coupled with a fluctuation in inventory levels.

Median Home Prices and Trends

Despite a modest recent dip in median home prices in Las Vegas, the market maintains stability thanks to a robust local economy and continued appeal for out-of-state migrants. For instance, the median sales price for a single-family home was $495,000 in a recent year, reflecting a decrease of 5.71% from the previous year. This modest decrease continued, with the median price for single-family homes dropping to $449,900 that same year.

Rental Market Insights

At present, the Las Vegas rental market is confronting several hurdles. Notably, the city is experiencing rent fluctuations, with drops in wealthier areas and hikes in less affluent neighborhoods.

Furthermore, Las Vegas is dealing with a shortage of multifamily units due to supply chain disruptions, heightened interest rates, and inflation. This lack of supply is putting upward pressure on rental rates, signaling that decreases in rent prices are unlikely shortly.

Despite these challenges, the rental market growth has been robust, with rent increases ranging from 25% to 40% between Fall 2020 and Spring 2022, highlighting the compelling investment appeal of Las Vegas rental properties.

Interest Rates and Mortgage Trends

Interest rates and mortgage trends play a significant role in molding the Las Vegas housing market. Presently, the following factors are affecting the market:

  • Mortgage rates are nearing 20-year highs
  • Inflation is impacting homebuyers’ purchasing power
  • Homebuyers in Las Vegas are exercising more excellent selectivity
  • Purchase applications are still 40% lower in the inventory

These dynamics are causing the current housing market in Las Vegas to adjust to the higher mortgage rates.

The doubling of mortgage prices in 2022 placed significant downward pressure on consumer buying power, directly influencing the housing market trends in Las Vegas. Forecasts for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in 2024 expect an average of 7% in Q1, with a predicted decline to 6.5% by Q4. These trends and projections highlight the significant impact of interest rates and mortgage trends on the Las Vegas real estate market dynamics.

The Federal Reserve’s Influence

The Federal Reserve’s decisions strongly sway the Las Vegas real estate market. The Federal Reserve manages the supply of money and the cost of credit, mainly through the federal funds rate.

While it doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its policies significantly influence them. The federal funds rate, the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight, can impact longer-term rates such as those for mortgages and also affects Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), which are typically tied to the prime rate.

The FOMC has kept the federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.5%, with hints of possible rate reductions in 2024. This could lead to decreased mortgage rates, as projected by financial experts. A lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve could result in:

  • Reduced mortgage rates.
  • Enhanced home affordability in Las Vegas.
  • Potential changes in the real estate market, such as a surge in demand, may drive up home prices.

Mortgage Rate Predictions for Las Vegas

Projected mortgage rates for Las Vegas in 2024 fall between 6% and 7%, with possible reductions expected by year’s end.

According to Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist, mortgage rates will likely be in the 6% to 7% range for the recent year. Similarly, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts mortgage rates to be 6.1% by 2024, decreasing to 5.5% by the end of 2025.

These predictions highlight the potential fluctuations in mortgage rates and their impact on the real estate market.

Investment Potential in the Las Vegas Real Estate Market

the real estate market of Las Vegas presents enticing investment prospects

The lively real estate market of Las Vegas presents enticing investment prospects. The city’s strong economy, continuous population growth, and low property taxes contribute to better returns on investment, making long-term ownership in Las Vegas financially attractive. 

Furthermore, ongoing infrastructure developments in Las Vegas are set to enhance the quality of life and increase property values, which is beneficial for long-term real estate investment.

Investors in the Las Vegas market have various options, such as single-family homes, multi-unit properties, and commercial real estate. These options cater to different investment strategies. Whether you’re a first-time investor or a seasoned pro, understanding the nuances of the Las Vegas real estate market can help you make well-informed investment decisions.

Forecasted Economic Developments Affecting Las Vegas Real Estate

Here are some factors that highly influenced the Las Vegas real estate market and could continue to do so:

  1. Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Las Vegas heavily relies on tourism and hospitality. Economic developments affecting this sector, such as travel trends, conventions, and entertainment events, can significantly impact the demand for real estate, especially in the hospitality sector.
  2. Job Market: The local job market, including employment opportunities and wage growth, plays a crucial role in determining demand for housing. Economic indicators like unemployment rates and job creation forecasts can provide insights into the real estate market’s health.
  3. Population Growth: Population growth, driven by migration patterns and birth rates, influences housing demand. Las Vegas has experienced significant population growth in recent years, which has driven demand for housing.
  4. Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates can affect mortgage affordability and housing demand. Lower interest rates generally stimulate demand by making mortgages more affordable, while higher rates can dampen demand.
  5. Supply and Demand Dynamics: Housing supply and demand balance is crucial to real estate prices. Factors such as new construction, inventory levels, and housing affordability can impact this balance.
  6. Economic Diversification Efforts: Efforts to diversify the local economy beyond hospitality and tourism can have long-term implications for the real estate market. Initiatives aimed at attracting businesses from sectors like technology, healthcare, and manufacturing can influence demand for commercial and residential properties.
  7. Regulatory Environment: Changes in local, state, or federal regulations related to real estate, such as zoning laws, property taxes, or landlord-tenant regulations, can affect market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Balanced Market Outlook for Buyers and Sellers

Shifting towards a more balanced setup, the Las Vegas housing market is poised to be advantageous for buyers and sellers. The city’s real estate market is expected to shift from a seller’s market to a neutral environment.

This transition will likely increase flexibility and negotiation opportunities for both parties, making the market more conducive for transactions.

Seller’s Market Transition

A transition from a seller’s market to a more neutral setting has been observed in the Las Vegas market. The city’s housing market witnessed a peak in median home sale price in mid-2022 but has since experienced a notable decline as mortgage rates rose. Zillow’s 1-year market forecast predicts a further decrease of 1.4% by October 31, 2024. Signs of this market shift are evident as only 26.5% of homes sold above the list price in May 2023, and with other indicators, experts predict a transition to a neutral market that favors buyers and sellers.

However, the city’s market continues to face a challenge with low inventory and an affordability crisis, partly due to many holding onto low-interest-rate mortgages secured during the pandemic. Despite these challenges, an increase in the rate of listings experiencing price drops to 23.3% in May 2023 suggests that sellers are becoming more flexible and open to negotiations, a stark contrast to the previous seller’s market conditions with home prices dropping.

Buyer’s Market Possibilities

With market stabilization, buyers in Las Vegas could encounter enhanced bargaining power and a more accommodating environment. The city’s housing market is showing signs of transitioning to a slight buyer’s market, as indicated by an increased supply of 4.6 months as of January 2023, indicating a cooling trend and potential for increased buyer power. In addition, there is a noted decrease in homes selling over the list price, down to only 25.7% of sales as of September 30, 2023, suggesting a decline in buyer competition and fewer bidding wars.

Buyers may find improved negotiation leverage as the market moves towards a more balanced state. This transition provides opportunities for price negotiations and sales incentives in a more buyer-friendly environment. On the other hand, sellers are experiencing more extended selling periods. They may need to offer more talks on their list price, as indicated by decreased buyer demand and the potential for price drops during the upcoming spring and summer selling seasons.

Long-Term Projections for Las Vegas Real Estate

The Las Vegas real estate market is expected to continue growing steadily due to the city’s strong economy, which has diversified with the addition of major sports teams and expansion beyond hospitality.

Despite fluctuations in building permits, these changes reflect shifting market conditions. Investing in Las Vegas real estate is a promising way to build wealth and financial security over time.

However, it’s recommended that long-term investors conduct thorough market research and seek expert advice to understand market conditions better. It’s important to remember that there are no guarantees regarding the market’s direction.

Predicted Growth and Market Stability

It is forecasted that the growth and stability of the city’s real estate market will persevere into the future. Here are some key factors that support this projection:

  • The tourism, entertainment, and technology industries drive Las Vegas’s resilient economy.
  • Steady population growth creates a demand for housing.
  • Infrastructure development includes expanding the Las Vegas Convention Center and constructing new sports stadiums.

These factors signify the potential for long-term real estate investment in Las Vegas. This potential for a more balanced market, combined with the city’s strong economic fundamentals, suggests a promising future for the Las Vegas real estate market.

Las Vegas Real Estate: Seizing Opportunities Amidst Challenges

The economic forecast for Las Vegas real estate indicates a market of opportunities and challenges. Understanding the current market trends and economic indicators can help buyers, sellers, and investors make informed decisions. Las Vegas’ evolving landscape offers various prospects for those willing to navigate its complexities.

Whether buying, selling, or investing, the real estate market here can be a promising avenue for financial growth. Partnering with experts like Faranesh Real Estate and Property Management can guide you in exploring this dynamic market successfully.

Schedule a consultation to explore your options and take steps toward achieving your real estate goals in Las Vegas.

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